State of home energy in Australia, 2026.
The single, honest, dated snapshot of the numbers that decide Australian home energy in 2026 — solar and battery rebates, feed-in tariffs, the sun tax, orphaned-system risk and the cost of electrifying. Every figure carries a named source and a date. No sales spin — this is a reference, not a pitch.
Reviewed by Josh, Mission Green Energy Team · Updated July 2026
The one honest place
these numbers live.
Australian home-energy figures drift fast — rebates step down, tariffs fall, scheme rules change. This is the single hub where Mission Green maintains the ones that matter, each with a named, dated source you can check yourself.
Most energy pages quote a number without a source, or quote one that was true two years ago. That's how "the rebate is $X" or "solar saves $Y" ends up misleading people into the wrong purchase. This page is our answer to that: a reference hub, not a sales page. Every figure below is either sourced inline or deliberately left as a range because a single point figure would mislead.
We only publish numbers we can attribute to a primary or named source, and we say "as at 2026" everywhere because these figures move. Where the honest answer is a range — battery rebates, electrification savings, feed-in tariffs — we give the range and the assumptions, not a false precision. This is the single place we maintain these figures; other Mission Green pages, and anyone citing us, should point here.
If you want your own numbers run rather than the national averages, that's what a free assessment does — and you can see how often our advice is "wait" or "not yet" on our public honesty record.
Solar rebates, feed-in tariffs
and the sun tax.
The headline shift in 2026: the upfront solar rebate is smaller than it was, exported solar earns almost nothing, and in two states you can now be charged for exporting at the wrong time. The value has moved decisively into self-consumption.
The 6.6kW rebate is smaller than it was. From 1 January 2026 the small-scale technology certificate (STC) deeming period stepped down to 5 years, which cut the number of certificates a system earns. A typical 6.6kW solar system in most metro postcodes is now worth roughly $1,700 to $1,900 as at 2026 (at an STC price of about $37 to $39 each) — down from around $2,100, a drop of roughly $300 to $400. The exact figure depends on your postcode zone and the STC market price on your install date. (Source: Clean Energy Regulator STC entitlement calculator, cer.gov.au, as at 2 July 2026.)
Feed-in tariffs have collapsed. The credit for exporting solar to the grid is now very low, and the value of solar sits almost entirely in self-consumption — using your own power rather than exporting it. IPART's all-day voluntary benchmark for NSW in 2026-27 is just 3.4 to 6.5 c/kWh, down from 4.8 to 7.3 c/kWh the year before, and it is a non-binding guide only — retailers may offer more or less. (Source: IPART solar feed-in tariff benchmarks 2024-25 to 2026-27, ipart.nsw.gov.au, as at 2 July 2026.)
The "sun tax" is live in NSW and SA. Two-way export pricing charges for solar exported in the sunny middle of the day (usually paired with a reward for evening exports). As at 2026 it applies in New South Wales and South Australia — SA Power Networks introduced its export tariff from 1 July 2025, and all three NSW networks (Ausgrid, Endeavour and Essential Energy) have two-way tariffs. These are network charges levied on retailers, so a household only feels it if and how its retailer passes it through — not as an automatic separate line item. Ausgrid's own modelling puts the net impact at about $6.60 a year for a typical 5kW system, assuming full pass-through. Queensland and Victoria had no residential sun tax as at 2026. (Source: SA Power Networks export tariff; Ausgrid two-way solar pricing, as at 2 July 2026.)
| Solar figure (as at 2026) | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 6.6kW system STC rebate (most metro) | ~$1,700–$1,900 (was ~$2,100) | Clean Energy Regulator |
| STC market price | ~$37–$39 per certificate | Clean Energy Regulator |
| STC deeming period (from 1 Jan 2026) | 5 years (stepped down) | Clean Energy Regulator |
| NSW all-day feed-in benchmark 2026-27 | 3.4–6.5 c/kWh (voluntary guide) | IPART |
| Sun tax (two-way export pricing) | Live in NSW & SA | SA Power Networks / Ausgrid |
| Sun tax net impact, typical 5kW (Ausgrid) | ~$6.60/yr (full pass-through) | Ausgrid |
The Cheaper Home Batteries
Program, honestly stated.
The federal battery rebate is the biggest change to home-battery economics in years — around 30% off. But it is delivered as tradeable certificates that float with the market, so there is no fixed dollar-per-kilowatt-hour figure, and anyone quoting one is guessing.
The federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program (CHBP) takes around 30% off the installed cost of a home battery. It is delivered as tradeable STCs (small-scale technology certificates), not a flat cash grant and not a fixed dollar-per-kWh rate. From 1 May 2026 the rate is about 6.8 STCs per kWh of usable capacity, and the certificate value floats with the STC market — roughly $37 to $39 each as at 2026. The rebate is tapered above 14 kWh of usable capacity, eligible systems run 5 to 100 kWh, and certificates are paid on the first 50 kWh of usable capacity. (Source: Clean Energy Regulator, cer.gov.au/batteries, as at 2 July 2026.)
Two honest points that cut against the usual sales pressure:
- There is no fixed $/kWh. Because the certificate value floats with the market and the taper depends on system size, any "$X per kWh" or flat "$Y after rebate" headline is an indicative back-calculation that drifts. The honest figure is "around 30%, via STCs, ~6.8 STCs/kWh from 1 May 2026" — the dollar total only firms up in a real quote for your system.
- It steps down gradually — it is not a cliff. The program reduces in steps roughly every six months, and the next step is 1 January 2027 (from about 6.8 to 5.7 STCs/kWh), not an overnight cut. So "the rebate is ending, buy now" is not a good reason to rush a battery that doesn't fit your home.
| CHBP figure (as at 2026) | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Headline discount | ~30% off installed cost | Clean Energy Regulator / DCCEEW |
| STC rate from 1 May 2026 | ~6.8 STCs per kWh usable | Clean Energy Regulator |
| Certificate value | ~$37–$39 each (floats) | Clean Energy Regulator |
| Taper | Reduced above 14 kWh usable | Clean Energy Regulator |
| Eligible system size | 5–100 kWh | Clean Energy Regulator / DCCEEW |
| Certificates paid on | First 50 kWh of usable capacity | Clean Energy Regulator |
| Next step-down | 1 January 2027 (gradual, not a cliff) | Clean Energy Regulator |
The orphaned-system risk
no one puts on a brochure.
One of the most under-reported numbers in Australian solar: roughly one in six or seven systems has been "orphaned" — the company that sold it has stopped trading, taking the workmanship warranty and after-sales support with it.
An estimated 600,000 Australian solar systems are "orphaned" — roughly 1 in 6 to 7 solar homes — meaning the company that sold or installed them has since ceased trading. This is an industry estimate by Markus Lambert, reported by CHOICE (27 November 2025), drawn from his running list of ASIC liquidation and deregistration notices for solar-named companies. (Source: CHOICE, "What to do if your solar company goes out of business," 27 November 2025, as at 2026.)
Why it matters: when an installer collapses, it is the installer's workmanship warranty and after-sales support that are lost. The manufacturer's product warranty generally survives and can usually be claimed directly with the maker or importer, provided they're still trading in Australia. So the long warranty on your panels or battery is only as good as the company that has to honour the labour and return-to-base side of it — which is exactly why it pays to check who you're buying from before you leave a deposit.
What it really costs
to get off gas.
Going all-electric usually cuts total bills — but as a range, not a guarantee, and only once mains gas is fully gone. Two figures drive it: the fixed gas supply charge you stop paying, and how well a heat pump performs in the cold.
The fixed gas supply charge is the number that matters. Before you burn a single unit of gas, you pay a fixed daily supply charge — roughly $255 to $365 a year in Victoria as at 2026. Disconnecting mains gas removes it entirely. Your electricity spend rises modestly, but total bills typically fall once that charge is gone. The honest caveat: keeping even one gas appliance means you still pay the full supply charge, so the saving only lands when gas is fully removed. (Source: Energy Consumers Australia, citing the Victorian Government and Climateworks Centre, as at 2 July 2026.)
All-electric usually cuts total bills — as a range. Estimated net savings vary widely by household: the Victorian Government estimates roughly $375 to $1,790 a year, depending on which appliances you replace and whether you have solar. It's a range, not a promise. (Source: Energy Consumers Australia, citing the Victorian Government and Climateworks Centre, as at 2 July 2026.)
Most homes disconnect, they don't abolish. A permanent abolishment of the gas connection is more expensive and rarely necessary; for most homes the practical step is to disconnect at end-of-life. The recurring saving comes from stopping the supply charge, not from the abolishment itself.
Heat-pump performance drops in the cold. A heat-pump hot water system's coefficient of performance (COP) falls in cold weather — warm-day lab COPs of 4-plus don't apply on a frosty morning. In cold zones like Canberra and Hobart, choose a cold-climate-rated unit designed to run on the heat pump alone down to about −5°C (CO₂/R744 units are a strong cold-climate option); a winter electric booster can significantly increase running costs. (Source: ACT Government "Singing in the shower" heat-pump buyers' guide, as at 2 July 2026.)
| Electrification figure (as at 2026) | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Fixed gas supply charge (Victoria) | ~$255–$365/yr (before usage) | Energy Consumers Australia |
| Estimated net all-electric saving | ~$375–$1,790/yr (range) | Vic Govt via Energy Consumers Australia |
| Most homes' practical step | Disconnect at end-of-life (not abolish) | — |
| Heat-pump hot water in the cold | Use cold-rated / CO₂ unit to ~−5°C | ACT Government buyers' guide |
How these numbers
are sourced.
Every figure on this page is checked against a primary or named source and dated "as at 2026," because these numbers drift. Where a single point figure would mislead, we publish a range with its assumptions instead.
Our rule is simple: no number without a named, dated source, and no false precision. We deliberately publish ranges — not single figures — for battery rebates (they float with the STC market), feed-in tariffs (they vary by retailer), gas supply charges and electrification savings (they're household-specific). Primary sources used on this page:
- Clean Energy Regulator — STC rates and the CHBP battery certificate schedule: cer.gov.au/batteries.
- IPART (NSW) — voluntary solar feed-in tariff benchmarks: ipart.nsw.gov.au.
- SA Power Networks & Ausgrid — two-way export pricing ("sun tax") tariffs and net-impact modelling.
- CHOICE (27 November 2025) — the orphaned-systems estimate attributed to Markus Lambert.
- Energy Consumers Australia (citing the Victorian Government and Climateworks Centre) — gas supply charges and all-electric savings ranges.
- ACT Government — heat-pump hot water cold-climate guidance.
This is the single place Mission Green maintains these figures. When they change — the next CHBP step-down on 1 January 2027, new IPART benchmarks, updated tariffs — we update them here first. Re-confirm any dollar or cents-per-kilowatt-hour figure at quote time; STC prices, tariff years and scheme status all move.
Numbers are national. Your bill isn't.
Every figure here is a national or state benchmark. The only way to know what any of it means for your roof, your usage and your tariff is to run your actual numbers — and to hear "wait" when that's the honest answer.
Benchmarks tell you the shape of the market: rebates smaller than they were, exports worth almost nothing, storage cheaper but not automatically worth it, gas getting more expensive to keep. They don't tell you whether solar, a battery or getting off gas pays for your home this year. That answer comes from your own usage, tariff and site — not a brochure average — and sometimes it's "not yet."
The 2026 numbers,
answered.
The federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program takes around 30% off the installed cost of a battery, delivered as tradeable small-scale technology certificates (STCs) rather than a fixed dollar grant. From 1 May 2026 the rate is about 6.8 STCs per kWh of usable capacity, and the value floats with the STC market at roughly $37 to $39 per certificate as at 2026 — so there is no fixed dollar-per-kWh figure. The rebate is tapered above 14 kWh of usable capacity, eligible systems run 5 to 100 kWh, and certificates are paid on the first 50 kWh of usable capacity. It steps down gradually rather than ending in a cliff — the next step is 1 January 2027, not an overnight cut. (Source: Clean Energy Regulator, cer.gov.au/batteries, as at 2 July 2026.)
For a typical 6.6kW solar system in most metro postcodes, the small-scale technology certificate (STC) rebate is worth roughly $1,700 to $1,900 as at 2026, at an STC price of about $37 to $39 each. That is down from around $2,100 previously, a drop of roughly $300 to $400, because from 1 January 2026 the STC deeming period stepped down to 5 years. The exact figure depends on your postcode zone and the STC market price on your install date, so confirm it at quote. (Source: Clean Energy Regulator STC entitlement calculator, cer.gov.au, as at 2 July 2026.)
The sun tax is two-way export pricing — a network charge on solar exported to the grid during the sunny middle of the day, usually paired with a reward for exporting in the evening peak. As at 2026 it is live in New South Wales and South Australia. South Australia Power Networks introduced its export tariff from 1 July 2025, and in NSW all three networks (Ausgrid, Endeavour and Essential Energy) have two-way export tariffs. Importantly these are network charges levied on retailers, so a household only feels it if and how its retailer passes it through — it is not an automatic separate line item. Ausgrid's own modelling puts the net impact at roughly $6.60 a year for a typical 5kW system, assuming full pass-through. Queensland and Victoria did not have a residential sun tax as at 2026. (Source: SA Power Networks and Ausgrid two-way pricing, as at 2 July 2026.)
Feed-in tariffs have collapsed, and the value in solar has shifted to self-consumption — using your own power rather than exporting it. IPART's all-day voluntary benchmark for New South Wales in 2026-27 is just 3.4 to 6.5 c/kWh, down from 4.8 to 7.3 c/kWh the year before, and this benchmark is only a non-binding guide — retailers may offer more or less. Because a kilowatt-hour you use yourself is worth far more than one you export at these rates, the economics now favour shifting load into daylight or storing surplus in a battery rather than sending it to the grid. (Source: IPART solar feed-in tariff benchmarks 2024-25 to 2026-27, as at 2 July 2026.)
An estimated 600,000 Australian solar systems are orphaned — roughly 1 in 6 to 7 solar homes — meaning the company that sold or installed them has since stopped trading, so the workmanship warranty and after-sales support are gone. This is an industry estimate by Markus Lambert, reported by CHOICE (27 November 2025), drawn from his running list of ASIC liquidation and deregistration notices for solar-named companies. When an installer collapses, the manufacturer's product warranty generally survives and can be claimed directly with the maker or importer if they are still trading in Australia; what is lost is the installer's workmanship warranty and support. (Source: CHOICE, 27 November 2025, as at 2026.)
Usually yes, but as a range rather than a guarantee, and only once mains gas is fully disconnected. Going all-electric removes the fixed daily gas supply charge — roughly $255 to $365 a year in Victoria as at 2026 — which you pay before using any gas at all. Your electricity spend rises modestly, but total bills typically fall once that supply charge is gone. The key honest caveat is that keeping even one gas appliance means you still pay the full supply charge, so the saving only lands when gas is fully removed; and for most homes the practical step is to disconnect at end-of-life, not abolish the connection. Estimated net savings range widely by household — the Victorian Government estimates roughly $375 to $1,790 a year — so it depends on which appliances you replace and whether you have solar. (Source: Energy Consumers Australia, citing the Victorian Government and Climateworks Centre, as at 2 July 2026.)